ABSTRACT
Myanmar’s Sagaing Region has faced both the devastating effects of the ongoing civil conflict and the destruction caused by Cyclone Mocha, creating a unique context for studying resilience in dual-crisis scenarios. This study investigates the severity of damage caused by both the civil war and the cyclone, assesses resilience levels, and explores the relationship between damage and recovery outcomes among affected communities in seven villages in Yinmarbin and Salingyi Townships. Data were collected remotely via surveys administered by local intermediaries due to security concerns, ensuring participant safety and data integrity. The study found that the civil war caused more significant property damage, particularly through airstrikes and military burnings, affecting homes, infrastructure, and livelihoods. In contrast, Cyclone Mocha, while devastating in agricultural areas, had a less widespread impact on residential and infrastructural properties. The resilience scores of respondents reflected a lower recovery capacity during the civil war, with more than 50% of participants reporting very low resilience, particularly in the areas of food access, education continuity, and income generation. After Cyclone Mocha, a higher percentage of respondents reported moderate to good resilience, indicating more effective recovery. The study highlights the compounded difficulties faced by communities, including safety concerns, housing destruction, and access to basic services such as food, medicine, and education. The findings emphasize the need for victim-centered, holistic approaches to disaster preparedness and recovery that address both the immediate and long-term challenges faced by communities living in dual-crisis environments.
INTRODUCTION
Myanmar is highly susceptible to both climate-induced natural disasters and political instability, making it one of Southeast Asia’s most vulnerable nations. According to the Long-Term Climate Risk Index (Eckstein et al., 2021), Myanmar ranked among the top three countries most affected by extreme weather events over the past two decades. Cyclones, floods, and landslides have repeatedly disrupted livelihoods and damaged critical infrastructure. Cyclone Nargis in 2008, for instance, claimed over 138,000 lives and caused widespread devastation (Bankoff, 2019). More recently, Cyclone Mocha in May 2023 led to significant losses in Rakhine and Sagaing Regions.
In parallel, Myanmar’s prolonged civil conflicts, particularly since the military coup in February 2021, have intensified internal displacement and human suffering. Over 1.6 million people have been displaced due to conflict-related violence, with widespread property destruction and socioeconomic disruption (Skidmore & Ware, 2023). The Sagaing Region has been a hotspot for both armed conflict and natural disasters, exacerbating vulnerabilities among already struggling communities.
While existing literature highlights the individual impacts of either conflict or natural disasters, there is limited research comparing resilience outcomes across these dual crises. Resilience, defined as the capacity to recover from adverse conditions, is influenced by the severity of damage, access to resources, and social support (Folke et al., 2010). Understanding the interplay between damage levels and resilience is critical for designing holistic recovery strategies that address both human and infrastructural needs.
This study aims to investigate the adverse factors faced by communities affected by the civil war and cyclone Mocha in Sagaing Region. Specifically, it compares damage severity, assesses resilience scores, and explores the relationship between these variables. The findings provide actionable insights for post-conflict reconstruction and disaster preparedness, emphasizing victim-centered approaches to enhance long-term resilience.
